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Climate change and Bulgarian agriculture: economic impact and vulnerability
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Project term of execution
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The project addresses the following two scientific goals:
1. Investigation of ongoing and future climate changes and an assessment of their impact on extreme events on the base of Max Plank Institute -Meteorology climate model REMO.
2. Evaluation of the economic impacts of climate changes on agriculture on a farm and national level.
In the project, the specific climate change impact over the next decades will be analyzed jointly with the German consultants, including the impact on weather pattern and the consequences for extreme events.
Using regression analyses the biophysical impacts of climate parameters (derived by the REMO model) on crops will be quantified and region-specific crop models will be developed for the economically important crops in all six regions in Bulgaria.
Moreover, the project will evaluate the economic impacts on a micro and macroeconomic level in Bulgaria as a result of changes in agricultural production caused by climate change in the future (2030-2050).
In addition, a study of vulnerabilities of the regions (in a socio-economic vulnerability approach), and recommendations to policy-makers will be developed.
There will be wide dissemination of the project results among different stakeholders.
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Expected results description including publications
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Main results:
1. Investigation of ongoing and future climate changes and an assessment of their impact on the extreme events on the base of Max Plank Institute -Meteorology climate model REMO
2. Evaluation of impacts on natural ecosystems - crop yields, incl. reports about statistical crop models and about the constructed model farms in Bulgaria with typical crop mixes
3. Economic impact assessments of agriculture in Bulgaria and economic vulnerability of the national economy to projected climate changes
Publications: conference proceedings, book, recommendations to policy-makers, a national conference will be organised
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Climate change, agriculture, Bulgaria, regional climate models, scenarios, economic impacts, vulnerability, regression analysis, crop budgeting methods, model farms, cluster analysis, input-output analysis
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Project stages
(terms, results and funding)
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Two stages
First stage – 18 months
Results:
1. Investigation of ongoing and future climate changes and an assessment of their impact on the extreme events on the base of REMO climate model
2. Report about statistical crop models
Second stage – 18 moths
Results:
1. Constructed model farms in Bulgaria with typical crop mixes
2. Economic impact assessments of agriculture in Bulgaria and economic vulnerability of the national economy to projected climate changes
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Information about the funding programme
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National Science Fund, Programme: Promoting Scientific Research In Priority Areas Competition (Thematic Competition) – 2009
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Information about an additional funding
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Total value of the project
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Total sum granted to UNWE
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Information about the responsible subdivision
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Department Natural Resource Economics, University for National and World Economy
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Information about the partners of the project
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National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
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Professor Doctor of Economic Sciences Plamen Mishev
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Project body (project team members)
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- Prof. Dr. Ec. Sc. Plamen Mishev, University for National and World Economy (UNWE)
- Assoc. Prof. Nedka Ivanova, Ph.D., UNWE
- Ass. Prof. Maria Peneva, Ph.D., UNWE
- Ass. Prof. Zornitsa Stoyanova, Ph.D., UNWE
- Assistant Hristina Harizanova, UNWE
- Antoaneta Golemanova, Ph.D., University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
- Research fellow I degree Milkana Mochurova, Ph.D., Institute of Economics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS)
- Senior Research Fellow II degree Staycho Kolev, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) – BAS
- Research fellow I degree Tania Marinova, NIMH – BAS
- Research fellow I degree Boriana Tsenova, NIMH – BAS
- Franz Prettenthaler, Ph.D., Joanneum Research, Institute of Technology and Regional Policy, Graz, Austria
- Daniela Jacob, Ph.D., Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
- Susanne Pfeifer, Ph.D., Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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