Impact Assessment of EU Funds in Bulgaria: Characteristics and Evolution of the SIBILA Model

Abstract

The present study has the following objectives. First, to describe the overall structure and principles underlying the construction of SIBILA, an original macroeconomic model which was developed for Bulgaria’s government to assess the impact of EU funds in the country. Second, to provide the details of the main behavioural equations in its latest version. Third, to discuss the approach used in scenario formulation, simulation, and model validation. To this end, we review the history and evolution of the modelling framework through its three versions. We describe the modelling approach, blocks, and key relationships with a focus on the latest version of SIBILA developed by the present authors. We explain the nature of scenario design and illustrate the main ideas of effects measurement with some simulation results. A sketch of the purpose and nature of the sensitivity analysis performed to test the model is included. We conclude by listing the main areas of application of the SIBILA model and outlining its role for policy. Our assessment points out that it has helped to achieve higher efficiency of spending, as well as to increase the transparency and objectiveness of both ex-post and ex-ante evaluations of plans and programmes.