An Inquiry into the Rationale Behind Violent Ethnic Conflicts: a Rational Choice Perspective

Abstract

The paper examines the contribution of Rational Choice Theory (RCT) to the study and explanation of violent ethnic conflicts. It seeks to identify how RC methodological individualism applies to ethnic conflict and ethnic violence and what sorts of explanations of these phenomena could be reached through a RC approach. The analytical apparatus of Game theory is employed to model and explain individuals’ reasoning and behavior in situations of mounting ethnic tension and bursting violence. The account focuses on actions of rational decision-makers in situations of pending or actual inter-group violence. Within this frame strategies that rational individuals would follow in such circumstances are examined and the aggregate effect of pursuing such strategies is presented. Building on the presentation and examination of the application of RCT (methodological individualism) to the level of individual, the analysis show how the analytical tools provided by Game theory help to explain the dynamics of inter-group relations in cases of deepening conflict and the occurrence and persistence of violence. Finally, an attempt is made to pinpoint the advantages and deficiencies of RC approach to phenomena of violent ethnic conflict.