ARDL Models Concerning Cattle Number and Cow Milk Production in Bulgaria

Abstract

The present paper estimates and forecasts the cattle number and quantity of cow milk produced in Bulgaria for 2018, using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. Furthermore, it identifies some of the factors that influence them. The ARDL models were constructed on the basis of the annual data for the period between 01.11.2000 and 01.11.2017. The long-run coefficients in the cattle number model were significant, showing the cattle number was positively related to calves’ price, but negatively related to milk product consumption. Significant short-run relations were observed between cattle number and: calves’ price and consumption of milk products. The long-run coefficients in the second model for cow milk production show that the production of cow milk was in a positive association with the number of dairy cows, the prices of cow milk and the consumption of milk products. The conducted Wald Test exposed that there was a short-run connection between cow milk production and dairy cows. Dummies’ coefficients were negative numbers, meaning that the adaptation periods, following changes in agrarian policy, led to a decrement in cattle number, as well as in cow milk production.